Rice University
November 10, 2023
Today
Motivation
Conceptual framework
Case study
Ongoing work
Conclusions
Figure 2: @hydroclim_memes
Figure 3: @hydroclim_memes
Today
Motivation
Conceptual framework
Case study
Ongoing work
Conclusions
Generic nonstationary model for annual maximum precipitation:
Process-informed models condition parameters on climate indices
Today
Motivation
Conceptual framework
Case study
Ongoing work
Conclusions
Figure 4: We retain 199 GHCND stations which have at least 30 years with 362+ days of data. Colors indicate number of years of data used.
Bayesian hierarchical space-time model:
Assume: latent parameters
Figure 5: Posterior mean of trend coefficients. Specifically, how much do (T): location parameter and (B): log scale parameter increase with
Figure 6: Posterior mean of 100 year return level for 1 day duration at stations, using 2021 covariates (
Figure 7: (T): Change in posterior mean of 10, 50, and 100 year return levels from 1940–2021. (B): Difference between our posterior mean for 2021 and Atlas 14. Red (blue) indicates our estimates are lower (higher).
Figure 8: Quantiles of the observation records given the simulated posterior GEV distributions. An ideal model would have a uniform distribution.
Today
Motivation
Conceptual framework
Case study
Ongoing work
Conclusions
Figure 9: TAMU/TWDB teams have gathered
Adding a few parameters, we explicitly and flexibly model the GEV parameters as a function of duration
Figure 10: Duration-dependent parameterizations can capture multiple IDF curve behaviors (Fauer et al., 2021)
Today
Motivation
Conceptual framework
Case study
Ongoing work
Conclusions
Spatially Varying Covariates Model
@jdossgollin